Lately, the Mariners have been very disappointing to watch
as there appears to be no offense being produced by the team at all. It has
created large amounts of discussion by the journalists, the bloggers, the radio
hosts, and Eric Wedge; with all calling for a significant change. In fact,
reading the tweets from the various journalists, Wedge has gone on record
saying that he is going to create some changes because the job isn’t getting
done and he and Jack Z have back that up somewhat by sending Hector Noesi down
to AAA Tacoma and recalling Carlos Perguero, creating shutters through the
Mariners blogosphere. While it’s nice to see the team want to fix the team’s
problems, shuttling players between Tacoma and Seattle will not create the
solution, what needs to happen is the Mariners need to fix Safeco field now.
Major league teams tend to hit better at their home park
than on the road. There are many theories as to why that is from the fact which
range from sleeping in their own beds, to being used to the field, to not have
travel. The theories do not matter as much because each one may be different on
a player by player basis and the real key is that players just tend to hit
better at home. The statistics for MLB back this up as shown in the table below
2012 All MLB Team Stats
All Teams
|
BB/K
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wRC
|
wRAA
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
Home
|
0.44
|
811
|
0.326
|
0.416
|
0.742
|
0.157
|
0.299
|
5596
|
256.9
|
0.323
|
101
|
Away
|
0.39
|
843
|
0.313
|
0.396
|
0.709
|
0.145
|
0.293
|
5228
|
-300.3
|
0.309
|
92
|
From the data, we can conclude that teams do in fact tend to
hit worse on the road than at home, though there isn’t much disparity between
the two. However, when we look at the Mariners’ statistics, we get a very
different picture.
2012 Seattle Mariners
Home/Away
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wRC
|
wRAA
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
||||
Home
|
0.43
|
22
|
0.273
|
0.289
|
0.562
|
0.093
|
0.24
|
92
|
-72.5
|
0.253
|
58
|
Away
|
0.34
|
34
|
0.308
|
0.415
|
0.723
|
0.158
|
0.298
|
195
|
-3.2
|
0.314
|
100
|
Not only are the Mariners hitting better on the road, but
it’s a stark contrast with the every batted ball statistic showing significantly
more offense on the road. The wOBA is 61 points higher, wRC is 103 runs more,
wRC+ is 62 runs more. It’s not just a little more offense, but it appears that
the offense is roughly twice as good on the road than at home. When you compare
these numbers with the league averages, it starts to make the observer wonder
if the Mariners played all their games on the road if there team would have an
above average league offense.
Now, those of you who know Safeco field know that it favors
left handed hitters more than right handed hitters, so many of you are probably
concluding that only the right handed hitters are experiencing an issue. That
isn’t exactly the case.
2012 Seattle Mariners Home Statistics
Players
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wRC
|
wRAA
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
Ackley
|
0.216
|
0.298
|
0.269
|
0.567
|
0.052
|
0.283
|
9.7
|
-7.5
|
0.254
|
59
|
Ichiro
|
0.217
|
0.257
|
0.298
|
0.555
|
0.081
|
0.245
|
9.9
|
-9.7
|
0.245
|
53
|
Jaso
|
0.266
|
0.392
|
0.438
|
0.83
|
0.172
|
0.294
|
12.2
|
3.2
|
0.365
|
135
|
Montero
|
0.209
|
0.246
|
0.343
|
0.59
|
0.134
|
0.258
|
9
|
-7.2
|
0.253
|
58
|
Olivo
|
0.184
|
0.205
|
0.303
|
0.508
|
0.118
|
0.218
|
2.1
|
-6.9
|
0.207
|
27
|
Ryan
|
0.211
|
0.336
|
0.263
|
0.599
|
0.053
|
0.253
|
10.4
|
-3.3
|
0.282
|
78
|
Saunders
|
0.189
|
0.263
|
0.264
|
0.527
|
0.075
|
0.264
|
6.8
|
-6.7
|
0.246
|
53
|
Seager
|
0.157
|
0.265
|
0.261
|
0.526
|
0.104
|
0.186
|
9.1
|
-8.8
|
0.246
|
53
|
Smoak
|
0.165
|
0.229
|
0.241
|
0.47
|
0.075
|
0.181
|
4.5
|
-12
|
0.213
|
31
|
Wells
|
0.263
|
0.333
|
0.439
|
0.772
|
0.175
|
0.351
|
8.5
|
1.3
|
0.341
|
118
|
With the exception of Jaso, all of the left handed hitters
are not hitting very well at home to include Justin Smoak, though Smoak’s
statistics have not been split into left and right handed statistics because of
the worry of small sample size. What is interesting is that Casper Wells, a
right handed hitter is doing very well at Safeco. Now if we look at the away
splits you get a better picture of the season as a whole.
2012 Seattle Mariners Away Statistics
Players
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wRC
|
wRAA
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
Ackley
|
0.25
|
0.328
|
0.378
|
0.706
|
0.128
|
0.298
|
21.7
|
-0.2
|
0.314
|
100
|
Ichiro
|
0.293
|
0.311
|
0.397
|
0.708
|
0.103
|
0.295
|
20.8
|
-1.3
|
0.307
|
95
|
Jaso
|
0.29
|
0.357
|
0.484
|
0.841
|
0.194
|
0.327
|
10.5
|
2.5
|
0.359
|
131
|
Montero
|
0.279
|
0.313
|
0.407
|
0.72
|
0.129
|
0.324
|
16.4
|
-0.8
|
0.309
|
97
|
Olivo
|
0.226
|
0.242
|
0.419
|
0.661
|
0.194
|
0.239
|
7.7
|
-3.1
|
0.275
|
73
|
Ryan
|
0.165
|
0.25
|
0.281
|
0.531
|
0.116
|
0.216
|
7
|
-8.7
|
0.237
|
47
|
Saunders
|
0.301
|
0.356
|
0.524
|
0.88
|
0.223
|
0.35
|
30.3
|
9.7
|
0.382
|
147
|
Seager
|
0.318
|
0.349
|
0.561
|
0.91
|
0.242
|
0.344
|
28.6
|
9.6
|
0.388
|
151
|
Smoak
|
0.233
|
0.297
|
0.403
|
0.7
|
0.17
|
0.261
|
18.5
|
-1.5
|
0.305
|
94
|
Wells
|
0.24
|
0.321
|
0.36
|
0.681
|
0.12
|
0.355
|
5.9
|
-0.6
|
0.303
|
93
|
As you can see, the breakout for each player demonstrates
how hard Safeco has been on many of the players, especially the younger
players. Michael Saunders and Kyle Seager have been absolute monsters on the
road with wRC+ that put them in the neighborhood of Paul Konerko, Miguel
Cabrerra, Robinson Cano, and Matt Holliday. Meanwhile, Dustin Ackley, Jesus
Montero, and Justin Smoak have been near league average. Even Ichiro, with all
of the talk that he is past his prime appears to be close to league average and
when you account for his defense and 12.4 runs saved this year, he appears to
be an above average player again. The truth is that though this team appears to
be struggling, the home field cannot be ignored as the offense may be at least
average, if not better than average if Safeco Field would just play better. To
better illustrate how much of an impact the field has on the offense examine
the following table which takes the home statistics and subtracts the away
statistics.
2012 Seattle Mariners
Home Minus Away Statistics
Players
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
OPS
|
ISO
|
BABIP
|
wRC
|
wRAA
|
wOBA
|
wRC+
|
Ackley
|
-0.034
|
-0.03
|
-0.109
|
-0.139
|
-0.076
|
-0.015
|
-12
|
-7.3
|
-0.06
|
-41
|
Ichiro
|
-0.076
|
-0.054
|
-0.099
|
-0.153
|
-0.022
|
-0.05
|
-10.9
|
-8.4
|
-0.062
|
-42
|
Jaso
|
-0.024
|
0.035
|
-0.046
|
-0.011
|
-0.022
|
-0.033
|
1.7
|
0.7
|
0.006
|
4
|
Montero
|
-0.07
|
-0.067
|
-0.064
|
-0.13
|
0.005
|
-0.066
|
-7.4
|
-6.4
|
-0.056
|
-39
|
Olivo
|
-0.042
|
-0.037
|
-0.116
|
-0.153
|
-0.076
|
-0.021
|
-5.6
|
-3.8
|
-0.068
|
-46
|
Ryan
|
0.046
|
0.086
|
-0.018
|
0.068
|
-0.063
|
0.037
|
3.4
|
5.4
|
0.045
|
31
|
Saunders
|
-0.112
|
-0.093
|
-0.26
|
-0.353
|
-0.148
|
-0.086
|
-23.5
|
-16.4
|
-0.136
|
-94
|
Seager
|
-0.161
|
-0.084
|
-0.3
|
-0.384
|
-0.138
|
-0.158
|
-19.5
|
-18.4
|
-0.142
|
-98
|
Smoak
|
-0.068
|
-0.068
|
-0.162
|
-0.23
|
-0.095
|
-0.08
|
-14
|
-10.5
|
-0.092
|
-63
|
Wells
|
0.023
|
0.012
|
0.079
|
0.091
|
0.055
|
-0.004
|
2.6
|
1.9
|
0.038
|
25
|
Mean
|
-0.0518
|
-0.03
|
-0.1095
|
-0.1394
|
-0.058
|
-0.0476
|
-8.52
|
-6.32
|
-0.0527
|
-36.3
|
There are literally only three regular players who are
hitting better at home than on the road: Jaso, Wells, and Ryan. Jaso’s
statistics are close enough that random variation could be the explanation, but
with Wells and Ryan are obviously following the standard belief that hitters do
hit better at home. The significance of the delta between the home and away
wRC+ should give most people cause however. With such a stark contrast between
the home and away statistics, if the Mariners have Hit F/X, they should
probably use it to see what is going on and act accordingly. All of the reduced
offense at home cannot be good for developing players because they will make
adjustments and they may be making the wrong ones because the field is playing
so poorly. Yes, a change must be made but to the field and not to the team. The
field is broken and it’s an easy fix. I would even argue, move the fences in
during the All Star Break, it wouldn’t offer the break between seasons but
Seattle move into Safeco mid-year. Why not fix the field now and see how much
better things get?
I don't think you can move in the fences till the season is over, but loved the article!
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